What’s the Deal with the Electoral College?
by Kaden Shin
With the November 5th election approaching, the race for the White House takes center stage in America’s mind. Reputable polling outlets, such as the 538 polling aggregator and The New York Times, show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris virtually tied, with most polls showing the lead of either candidate as within the margin of error. As of now, according to 538, Harris is slightly ahead in the polling averages, at 48.5% to 46%.
History of the Electoral College
Before we talk about the odds, however, it's important to gain some understanding on how we elect our presidents in the first place. What is the electoral college, and why are those elusive battleground states so important in deciding the election?
Ever since its adoption in 1787, the electoral college has been the voting system the United States has used to elect our President. Our Founding Fathers originally created the system as a compromise. In the early days of America, there were two camps. One believed that Congress should elect the President, since they thought common people would not be knowledgeable enough to decide matters of such great importance. In addition, this group believed that allowing common people to vote would lead to threats of populism and mob rule. Another camp insisted that not allowing common people to vote would cause corruption with the Executive and Legislative branches. To offset this, they wanted a popular vote from the people.
Thus, the Electoral College was created. It struck a balance between those who wanted a popular vote and those against it. In the present day, there are a total of 538 electors, who cast the vote on behalf of their state. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed by a candidate to win the Presidency. The electors of each state are decided by the number of its Senators and House Representatives. As such, highly populated states contain dozens of electors while states with lower populations have fewer electors.
For example, California has a total of 55 electoral votes, while Wyoming has 3. Electors vote in a winner-take-all method: If 50.01% of California votes in favor of a certain candidate, and 49.99% vote for another, all 55 electoral votes would go to the majority candidate. In this scenario, Wisconsin could vote 99% in favor of the opposition candidate, but give that candidate a mere 3 electoral votes. California is overwhelmingly “blue,” or aligned with the Democratic Party, at around 60%. As such, there is barely any Republican attention focused on it for the presidency. Likewise, Wyoming has a 60% Republican party membership and a 25% Democrat party membership, leading the Democratic Party to focus very little, if at all, on it during presidential elections.
This, of course, has caused many critics to ask for a reform in the electoral process, as all campaign funds and attention is centered on winning over the 1% of undecided voters that will decide the fate of the election in what are known as “swing states,” those states with sufficient electoral votes where voters are more or less equally represented by both parties.
Moreover, the Electoral System poses another problem. Theoretically, this system means a presidential candidate can win over 70% of the popular vote, and yet still lose the presidency. This, among other reasons, has caused a push for a change in the electoral system. One possible alternative that has been suggested is a switch to a direct vote. So why has the electoral college not changed yet? To many, it is an outdated system, and public opinion is in favor of its abolition, with around 65% in favor of changing our elections to only a direct popular vote. However, the Electoral College has remained in place because the opposition does not have the support of two-thirds of the states required to change it via a Constitutional amendment. To address this, some states have signed on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote nationwide. There are, however, several Constitutional issues with implementing this change.
2024 Election
Back to our current election: both former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in an extremely tight race. To understand the state of the race, we must look at a few key states, often called “swing” or “battleground” states. The nature of the Electoral College means most states are either Democratic or Republican, casting predictable votes in every election. For example, California is overwhelmingly blue while Arkansas is overwhelmingly red. However, the states that “swing” with their votes from party to party have the power to bring a candidate to that coveted 270 electoral votes for the win.
Currently, the most crucial swing states are Wisconsin (10 EVs), Michigan (15 EVs), Arizona (11 EVs), Nevada (6 EVs). Pennsylvania (19 EVs), Georgia (16 EVs), and North Carolina (16 EVs). These battleground states command the most attention from the political parties, and are key for winning the election.
So far, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada are just barely in Trump’s favor, at around a <1% lead in North Carolina, 1.3% in Arizona, and 1.1% in Nevada, while in Georgia, Harris is up by 1%, with around the same number in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It is crucial to note, however, that polls have historically underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020. You can make predictions of how each state will go and create your own electoral college map via the Road to 270’s interactive map.
Now you know a bit about the race at hand, along with the various nuances that the Electoral College and battleground swing states bring. The 2024 Presidential Election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, although early voting and vote by mail start in October in most states. The race is on for 270 electoral votes!
Here, you can see the toss-up swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. These states will decide the results of the 2024 presidential election. The other states are expected to follow historical trends and polling data, and either vote solid or lean blue (Democrat) or solid or lean red (Republican). Nebraska and Maine allocate their electoral votes by district, not state-wide.